Ten years following the UK stumbled into a rushed referendum that polarised the country and unleashed chaos, a warning emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Authorities and citizens sleepwalked into Brexit and the same could occur with a national vote on a united Ireland, initiating upheavals for which nobody is ready.
That represents the warning from two prominent writers from both sides of the Irish border who have joined forces to scrutinise the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to establish a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Structures Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are woefully unprepared for a potentially contentious and monumental public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that events can come out of the blue and can build support very quickly," the commentator stated. "I would suggest that the political architecture of our archipelago remains extremely volatile."
New Title Seeks to Encourage Dialogue
The team have analysed the political, economic and cultural reasons for any constitutional change in a publication, Examining Irish Unification, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to encourage dialogue on the matter with a tour of lectures that will lead them to Westminster soon.
"What troubles everyone, or should haunt everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We should prevent a referendum on a yes-no, unclear proposal whose consequences have not been clarified because then you find yourself with an highly split population where those defeated are not reconciled to losing and the those successful are uncertain exactly what it is that they have achieved."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state should call a public vote on Irish unification if it seems probable that a most voters would approve.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists say such a time is imminent, and a non-profit called Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but both governments and unionists downplay the possibility, leaving it unclear if and when there might be a referendum.
Insufficient Informed Dialogue
Partisan language for and against unification has obscured the lack of serious debate, stated McBride.
"Many are supportive or opposed the notion but the detailed consideration which may surpass that to achieve it hasn't for the most part happened. A great deal has gone on in universities but very few government figures or activists want to engage with the fundamentals. For instance, which kind of country should be desired? Unitary? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the volume, none of the commentators endorses unification or the existing arrangement. They writes two articles that strive for objectivity in laying out the argument for a unified Ireland and the case opposing it, gathering economic and societal figures, previous instances and governmental frameworks.
Discussions cover flags and symbols, duties, medical care, pensions, public liabilities and the risk of unionist unrest. The aim is to inform and encourage discussion.
"Considerable attention exists in the topic but there is still lacking a discussion," said O’Toole. "Dialogue suggests an acknowledgement of the notion that there may exist reasonable perspectives on both sides."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate claim they support unification but oppose increased taxation or adopting a alternative symbol to recognise pro-UK communities' British culture.
"Policymakers in Ireland should determine what the offer from nationalist groups is beyond just saying: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," said the commentator.
Likelihood of Referendum
McBride considers a national vote in his lifetime is probable and that it could happen abruptly. "You could have just a reckless or a bad or a negligent official who says: 'Let's just do this and resolve it.'"
Each of the nationalists and unionists have plausible, justified perspectives, he stated. "Somebody will prevail in this matter and somebody will eventually not succeed but each side has got important lessons to gain from the opposing positions."
Appeal for More Extensive Discussion
Westminster must join the dialogue, said the analyst. "This concerns the United Kingdom. It is a British issue equally as it is an Irish question."
